Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 74

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 7-M.King punts 36 yards to KC 38, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill MUFFS catch, touched at KC 38, RECOVERED by LV-47-J.Cowser at KC 38. 47-J.Cowser to KC 38 for no gain (10-T.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.22 EP
59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 74, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model