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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 48

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to LV 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.45 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model