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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 36

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(3:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 10-S.Roberts to KC 23 for 13 yards (49-D.Sorensen).

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.10 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model