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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 85

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 7-M.King punts 53 yards to KC 32, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill to KC 48 for 16 yards (20-N.Allen). PENALTY on KC-49-D.Sorensen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.63 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 85, worth -5.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 43, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model