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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 72

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 7-M.King punts 37 yards to KC 35, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill to 50 for 15 yards (57-C.James; 22-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 30, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model