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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 19

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(2:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 10-S.Roberts (39-T.Mitchell).

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.40 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 19, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 29, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP