4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 7-M.King punts 42 yards to KC 24, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill to KC 22 for -2 yards (20-N.Allen).

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 24, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP