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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 41

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(10:59) 2-D.Colquitt punts 28 yards to LV 13, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.52 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 41, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP