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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 26

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(11:38) 11-S.Janikowski 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.69 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model