SF @ CHI — 4th & Data

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HC Chip Kelly

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HC John Fox

Sunday 2016-12-04 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌨 Snow Spread -0.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

38.7%

CHI

61.3%

🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

SF offense: -0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
SF defense: +0.152 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
CHI defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
CHI offense: -0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
QB edge to CHI: Matt Barkley (CHI) -0.057 vs Colin Kaepernick (SF) -0.088 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

SF 19

–

CHI 23

Projected margin: CHI by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

SF

Aaron Lynch LB Questionable Ankle

Quinton Patton WR Questionable Concussion

CHI

Jay Cutler QB Out right Shoulder

Eddie Royal WR Questionable Toe

Willie Young LB Questionable Knee

Adrian Amos S Questionable Foot

Leonard Floyd LB Questionable Concussion

Deiondre' Hall CB Questionable Ankle

Josh Sitton G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 6

–

CHI 26

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q2 06:59 FG SF (6:59) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 3 – CHI 0
Q2 02:00 FG SF (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 6 – CHI 0
Q2 00:35 TD CHI (:35) 24-J.Howard left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – CHI 6
Q3 09:36 TD CHI (9:36) 24-J.Howard left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – CHI 13
Q3 06:25 TD CHI (6:25) 24-J.Howard left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – CHI 20
Q4 13:01 FG CHI (13:01) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. SF 6 – CHI 24
Q4 02:00 SAF CHI (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert sacked in End Zone for -8 yards, SAFETY (94-L.Floyd). SF 6 – CHI 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 44

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 40%

(9:19) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.
Q1 SF 4th & 9 at the 79

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(7:32) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to CHI 42, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF.
Q1 CHI 4th & 14 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(6:00) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to SF 22, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley. PENALTY on SF-24-S.Draughn, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 22.
Q2 SF 4th & 9 at the 31

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 73%

(13:18) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 26 yards to CHI 5, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 37-B.Callahan.
Q2 CHI 4th & 12 at the 86

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(9:18) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 15 yards to CHI 29, Center-48-P.Scales. 36-D.Johnson pushed ob at CHI 4 for 25 yards (84-B.Braunecker). PENALTY on SF-33-R.Robinson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 4.
Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 13

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 95%

(6:59) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
Q2 SF 4th & 9 at the 10

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(8:39) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to CHI 36, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 37-B.Callahan. PENALTY on SF-13-A.Burbridge, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 36.
Q3 SF 4th & 14 at the 79

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(4:29) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to CHI 35, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 37-B.Callahan.
Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(3:03) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to SF 15, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.
Q3 SF 4th & 4 at the 79

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50%

(1:22) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to CHI 36, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 37-B.Callahan.
Q4 CHI 4th & 16 at the 27

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 80%

(13:01) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(12:03) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to CHI 28, Center-86-K.Nelson. 37-B.Callahan to CHI 31 for 3 yards (86-K.Nelson).
Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 52

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP

p(convert) 53% p(FG) 22%

(8:14) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback. PENALTY on SF-33-R.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 20.
Q4 SF 4th & 19 at the 87

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(5:39) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to CHI 46, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 37-B.Callahan.
Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 39 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 54%

(2:21) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 36 yards to SF 3, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.