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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 16 at the 27

Chicago Bears 21 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(13:01) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.10 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model