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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 31

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(13:18) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 26 yards to CHI 5, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 37-B.Callahan.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.27 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 31, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 41, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP