Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Chicago Bears 24

(12:03) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to CHI 28, Center-86-K.Nelson. 37-B.Callahan to CHI 31 for 3 yards (86-K.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.16 EP
67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 66, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model