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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 52

Chicago Bears 24 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(8:14) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback. PENALTY on SF-33-R.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 20.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.48 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP