Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 79

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

(7:32) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to CHI 42, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF.

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.89 EP
64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 79, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model