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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 79

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(4:29) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to CHI 35, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 37-B.Callahan.

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 79, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 36, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model