Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 62

Chicago Bears 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:00) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to SF 22, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley. PENALTY on SF-24-S.Draughn, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.07 EP
71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model