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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 79

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(1:22) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to CHI 36, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 37-B.Callahan.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.84 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 79, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 36, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model