4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 10

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.41 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 10, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model