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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 61

Chicago Bears 21 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(3:03) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to SF 15, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.38 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model