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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 39

Chicago Bears 24 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(2:21) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 36 yards to SF 3, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.00 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP