Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 19 at the 87

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Chicago Bears 24

(5:39) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to CHI 46, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 37-B.Callahan.

The Three Options

GO -3.24 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.36 EP
74% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 87, worth -4.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model