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SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Jim Tomsula
@
STL Home

St. Louis Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
Sunday 2015-11-01 · 13:00 Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis US 🏟 Dome Spread 8.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

SF
47.7%
STL
52.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.141 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Nick Foles (LA) -0.215 vs Colin Kaepernick (SF) -0.041 EPA/dropback
  • LA defense: -0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.123 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • SF on 3 more days rest than LA

Predicted Final Score

SF 19
–
STL 21
Projected margin: STL by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

SF

Carlos Hyde RB Out Foot
Anquan Boldin WR Questionable Hamstring
Alex Boone G Probable Shoulder
Navorro Bowman LB Probable Shoulder
Ahmad Brooks LB Probable Shoulder
Tony Jerod-Eddie DT Probable Not Injury Related
Colin Kaepernick QB Probable right Hand
Erik Pears T Probable Back
Eric Reid S Probable Chest
Joe Staley T Probable Shoulder

STL

Chris Long DE Out Knee
William Hayes DE Questionable Thigh
Tre Mason RB Questionable Ankle
T.J. McDonald S Questionable Shoulder
Robert Quinn DE Questionable Knee
Nick Fairley DT Probable Illness
Lance Kendricks TE Probable Thumb
James Laurinaitis LB Probable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 6
–
STL 27

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:34 FG SF (10:34) 9-P.Dawson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 3 – STL 0
  • Q1 04:29 SAF LA (4:29) 22-M.Davis up the middle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (55-J.Laurinaitis). SF 3 – STL 2
  • Q2 10:35 TD LA (10:35) (Shotgun) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 3 – STL 8
  • Q2 06:56 FG LA (6:56) 4-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. SF 3 – STL 13
  • Q2 01:56 FG SF (1:56) 9-P.Dawson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 6 – STL 13
  • Q2 00:23 TD LA (:23) 11-T.Austin right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – STL 19
  • Q4 08:49 TD LA (8:49) (Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass short left to 11-T.Austin for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – STL 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 64%

    (10:34) 9-P.Dawson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (9:15) 6-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to SF 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds. #23 R Bush caught the ball and foot landed on OB. Ruled punt OB.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (7:52) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to LA 18, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:45) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to SF 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 23-R.Bush pushed ob at SF 17 for 5 yards (36-B.Cunningham). SF-23-R.Bush was injured during the play. He is Out. PENALTY on SF-25-J.Ward, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at SF 10. Penalty on SF-49-B.Miller, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on SF, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 2 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 15 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 26%

    (2:48) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback. PENALTY on SF-35-E.Reid, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 20. Penalty on SF-35-E.Reid, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:38) 6-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to SF 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 10-B.Ellington to SF 11 for 2 yards (34-C.Reynolds).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to LA 34, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-49-B.Miller. SF-31-L.McCray was injured during the play.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 15 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:52) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to SF 23, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 10-B.Ellington pushed ob at SF 32 for 9 yards (46-C.Harkey).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:45) 5-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to LA 29, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-89-V.McDonald.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 11 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:17) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to SF 44, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-35-E.Reid. PENALTY on SF-49-B.Miller, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at SF 44.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%

    (6:56) 4-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (1:56) 9-P.Dawson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 7 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:13) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to SF 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (12:15) 5-B.Pinion punts 60 yards to LA 14, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin to LA 24 for 10 yards (89-V.McDonald). PENALTY on LA-50-C.Lynch, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at LA 16.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:52) 6-J.Hekker punts 60 yards to SF 2, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-38-C.Davis.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 7 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:26) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to LA 48, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin to LA 44 for -4 yards (56-S.Skov).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 7 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 88%

    (1:19) 4-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-Q.Dial), Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 24%

    (14:20) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to LA 10, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-T.Austin. PENALTY on LA-21-J.Jenkins, Face Mask (15 Yards), 5 yards, enforced at LA 10.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (12:46) 6-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to SF 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 10-B.Ellington to SF 35 for 5 yards (54-B.Hager). PENALTY on SF-58-E.Harold, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 30.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 13 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:23) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to LA 27, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-11-Q.Patton.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (6:42) 9-P.Dawson punts 48 yards to LA 24, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin to LA 43 for 19 yards (36-D.Johnson). PENALTY on LA-12-S.Bailey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 25.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:13) 6-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to SF 24, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 10-B.Ellington to LA 49 for 27 yards (50-C.Lynch).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 86%

    (3:07) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to 14-J.Simpson (21-J.Jenkins).