Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 80

Los Angeles Rams 27 – San Francisco 49ers 6

(4:13) 6-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to SF 24, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 10-B.Ellington to LA 49 for 27 yards (50-C.Lynch).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.80 EP
55% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model