Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 95

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Los Angeles Rams 20

(6:26) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to LA 48, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin to LA 44 for -4 yards (56-S.Skov).

The Three Options

GO -3.51 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.03 EP
60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 95, worth -5.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model