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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 93

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to SF 44, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-35-E.Reid. PENALTY on SF-49-B.Miller, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at SF 44.

The Three Options

GO -3.42 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.89 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 93, worth -5.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 51, worth -2.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model