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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 36

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 9-P.Dawson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.66 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 36, worth -2.25 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.94 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP