4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 72

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 9-P.Dawson punts 48 yards to LA 24, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin to LA 43 for 19 yards (36-D.Johnson). PENALTY on LA-12-S.Bailey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 25.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 72, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 30, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP