Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 15 at the 71

Los Angeles Rams 2 – San Francisco 49ers 3

(12:52) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to SF 23, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 10-B.Ellington pushed ob at SF 32 for 9 yards (46-C.Harkey).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.30 EP
73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model