Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 66

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:45) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to SF 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 23-R.Bush pushed ob at SF 17 for 5 yards (36-B.Cunningham). SF-23-R.Bush was injured during the play. He is Out. PENALTY on SF-25-J.Ward, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at SF 10. Penalty on SF-49-B.Miller, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on SF, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 2 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.29 EP
56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model