4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 7

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 9-P.Dawson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.00 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 7, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model