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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 53

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to LA 10, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-T.Austin. PENALTY on LA-21-J.Jenkins, Face Mask (15 Yards), 5 yards, enforced at LA 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.64 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 53, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model