Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 59

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 2

(10:45) 5-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to LA 29, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-89-V.McDonald.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.61 EP
62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 59, worth -3.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model