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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 74

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 5-B.Pinion punts 60 yards to LA 14, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin to LA 24 for 10 yards (89-V.McDonald). PENALTY on LA-50-C.Lynch, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at LA 16.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.00 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 74, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP