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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 52

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 2

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback. PENALTY on SF-35-E.Reid, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 20. Penalty on SF-35-E.Reid, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.44 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 52, worth -2.92 EP
KICK -1.57 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model