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Cleveland Browns

HC Mike Pettine
@
STL Home

St. Louis Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
Sunday 2015-10-25 · 13:00 Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

CLE
49.7%
STL
50.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Nick Foles (LA): -0.218 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CLE offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • LA on 7 more days rest than CLE
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LA defense: -0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 19
–
STL 21
Projected margin: STL by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

CLE

Joe Haden CB Out Concussion
Rob Housler TE Out Hamstring
Tashaun Gipson S Doubtful Ankle
Tank Carder LB Questionable Shoulder
John Hughes DE Questionable Knee
Marlon Moore WR Questionable Hamstring
Craig Robertson LB Questionable Ankle
Danny Shelton DT Questionable Knee
Gary Barnidge TE Probable Ankle
Johnny Manziel QB Probable right Elbow
Nate Orchard LB Probable Groin

STL

Chris Long DE Out Knee
Alec Ogletree LB Out Ankle
Tre Mason RB Questionable Ankle
Tavon Austin WR Questionable Thigh
Lance Kendricks TE Questionable Hand
Janoris Jenkins CB Probable Concussion
Robert Quinn DE Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 6
–
STL 24

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:06 TD LA (12:06) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short left to 18-T.Gabriel to CLE 16 for -3 yards (21-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (21-J.Jenkins), RECOVERED by LA-23-R.McLeod at CLE 20. 23-R.McLeod for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – STL 6
  • Q1 07:40 FG LA (7:40) 4-G.Zuerlein 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. CLE 0 – STL 10
  • Q2 14:07 FG CLE (14:07) 6-T.Coons 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. CLE 3 – STL 10
  • Q3 11:53 FG CLE (11:53) 6-T.Coons 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. CLE 6 – STL 10
  • Q3 02:20 TD LA (2:20) 30-T.Gurley left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – STL 16
  • Q4 08:18 TD LA (8:18) 30-T.Gurley right end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – STL 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 11 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:29) 6-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to CLE 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-T.Benjamin pushed ob at CLE 37 for 25 yards (6-J.Hekker). PENALTY on CLE-30-I.Campbell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at CLE 16.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 89%

    (7:40) 4-G.Zuerlein 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 97%

    (14:07) 6-T.Coons 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to CLE 4, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-15-B.Marquez.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 3 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (9:48) 8-A.Lee punts 51 yards to LA 38, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-T.Austin to LA 49 for 11 yards (58-C.Kirksey; 33-J.Poyer).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 15 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (9:15) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to CLE 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-T.Benjamin.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:07) 8-A.Lee punts 51 yards to LA 37, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-T.Austin pushed ob at LA 41 for 4 yards (24-J.Bademosi).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 46%

    (1:05) 8-A.Lee punts 31 yards to LA 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 41%

    (:09) 4-G.Zuerlein 63 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 83%

    (11:53) 6-T.Coons 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 93%

    (8:36) 4-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 24%

    (4:23) 8-A.Lee punts 41 yards to LA 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 24%

    (15:00) 8-A.Lee punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:26) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to CLE 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-T.Benjamin ran ob at CLE 21 for no gain.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 31 yards to CLE 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds. PENALTY on LA-15-B.Marquez, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 30.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 59%

    (1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel scrambles up the middle to LA 33 for 5 yards (20-L.Joyner).