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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 53

Cleveland Browns 6 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 8-A.Lee punts 41 yards to LA 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.79 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 53, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.69 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model