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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 17 at the 17

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 4-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 20% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.26 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 27, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model