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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 53

Cleveland Browns 6 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-A.Lee punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.64 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 53, worth -2.92 EP
KICK -1.61 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP