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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 21

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 4-G.Zuerlein 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.23 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 31, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model