Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 61

Los Angeles Rams 24 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 31 yards to CLE 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds. PENALTY on LA-15-B.Marquez, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 30.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.58 EP
54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 61, worth -2.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model