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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 26

Cleveland Browns 3 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 6-T.Coons 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.49 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 36, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model