Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 88

Cleveland Browns 3 – Los Angeles Rams 10

(8:07) 8-A.Lee punts 51 yards to LA 37, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-T.Austin pushed ob at LA 41 for 4 yards (24-J.Bademosi).

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.78 EP
60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 88, worth -5.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model