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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 45

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(:09) 4-G.Zuerlein 63 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +1.58 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 45, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model