Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 75

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Cleveland Browns 6

(13:26) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to CLE 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-T.Benjamin ran ob at CLE 21 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.43 EP
56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model