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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 7

Cleveland Browns 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(14:07) 6-T.Coons 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +2.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.73 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 7, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP