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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 43

Cleveland Browns 3 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 8-A.Lee punts 31 yards to LA 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.37 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model