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NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2024-01-07 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌨 Snow Spread 2.5 O/U 28.5

Win Probability

NYJ
31.7%
NE
68.3%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.285 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NE offense: -0.182 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • NYJ on 3 more days rest than NE
  • QB edge to NYJ: Bailey Zappe (NE) -0.136 vs Trevor Siemian (NYJ) -0.166 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 17
–
NE 22
Projected margin: NE by 5 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

NYJ

Jake Hanson G Out Concussion
Jeremy Ruckert TE Out Concussion
Zach Wilson QB Out Concussion
Aaron Rodgers QB Out Achilles
Wes Schweitzer G Doubtful Calf

NE

Trenton Brown T Out Illness
Hunter Henry TE Out Knee
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Knee
Pharaoh Brown TE Questionable Ribs
Myles Bryant CB Questionable Illness
Anfernee Jennings LB Questionable Knee
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Knee
Jalen Mills CB Questionable Ankle
DeVante Parker WR Questionable Ribs
Jabrill Peppers S Questionable Hamstring
Matt Slater WR Questionable Hamstring
Jahlani Tavai LB Questionable Tooth
Tyquan Thornton WR Questionable Ankle
Shaun Wade CB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 17
–
NE 3

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:07 FG NYJ (2:07) 9-G.Zuerlein 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. NYJ 3 – NE 0
  • Q2 09:35 FG NE (9:35) 37-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NYJ 3 – NE 3
  • Q2 06:12 FG NYJ (6:12) 9-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. NYJ 6 – NE 3
  • Q4 08:10 FG NYJ (8:10) 9-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. NYJ 9 – NE 3
  • Q4 01:57 TD NYJ (1:57) 20-Bre.Hall left end for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 15 – NE 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:18) 17-B.Baringer punts 63 yards to NYJ 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 23 for 13 yards (22-C.Davis).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:39) 5-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to NE 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 27-M.Bryant to NE 39 for 15 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:56) 5-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to NE 3, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:30) 17-B.Baringer punts 37 yards to NE 42, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson pushed ob at NE 38 for 4 yards (45-C.Board).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (2:07) 9-G.Zuerlein 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 60 yards to NYJ 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:49) 5-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to NE 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant. PENALTY on NYJ-34-J.Hardee, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NE 33.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (9:35) 37-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 88%

    (6:12) 9-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:48) 17-B.Baringer punts 37 yards to NYJ 34, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYJ 36.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 73%

    (:26) 9-G.Zuerlein 49 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:04) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete deep left.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:22) 5-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to NE 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 27-M.Bryant to NE 33 for 14 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 12 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (10:35) 17-B.Baringer punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (8:54) 5-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to NE 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:12) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to NYJ 8, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 18 for 10 yards (41-B.Schooler).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:08) 5-T.Morstead punts 27 yards to NE 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 14 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:36) 17-B.Baringer punts 37 yards to NYJ 35, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 45 for 10 yards (18-M.Slater).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (14:57) 5-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to NE 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 27-M.Bryant to NE 19 for 1 yard (19-I.Charles).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67%

    (12:23) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete short right to 86-P.Brown (21-A.Davis).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%

    (8:10) 9-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 17 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:11) 49-J.Cardona to NE 3 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by NE-17-B.Baringer at NE 2. 17-B.Baringer punts 41 yards to NYJ 43. 82-X.Gipson to NE 46 for 11 yards (86-P.Brown).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 37 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 58%

    (3:43) (Shotgun) 20-Bre.Hall right tackle to NE 40 for -3 yards (33-A.Jennings).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:26) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe scrambles right end ran ob at NE 49 for 4 yards (99-W.McDonald).