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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 63

New York Jets 6 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(13:22) 5-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to NE 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 27-M.Bryant to NE 33 for 14 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.09 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 63, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model