Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 84

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(14:49) 5-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to NE 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant. PENALTY on NYJ-34-J.Hardee, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NE 33.

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.41 EP
66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 84, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model